Tag: house price forecast

Covid-19: TLA House Price Forecast

Property prices are being forecast to drop by a whopping 10 per cent during 2020 owing to the coronavirus lockdown – with a majority of that forecasted decline already happening over the past 8 weeks.

Property Prices are preedicted to have fallen by around 6 per cent since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis as the market came to a sudden stop.

Since the Government announcement that Britain will fully exit lockdown only by the end of July at the earliest, TLA now expects a much bigger drop than those waving ‘the recovery flags’ in order to bring about some calm in the wake of a economic sledge-hammer blow across the market.

The TLA is now forecasting a 9% overall decrease, compared with a previous 4 per cent fall, and a 5 per cent fall in prime London locations.

Since Sunday night it’s become clearer that some lockdown measures will remain in place into July and that social distancing rules governing day-to-day life, including property transactions, may remain in place beyond that.

If we allow for the fact that some asking prices have come down since March, then we might conclude that prices are off by at least 5 per cent already since the beginning of the crisis.

Five per cent seems like a reasonable starting point, and it is increasingly clear that prime London’s five-year decline doesn’t means it is immune from price falls.

‘We do not expect prices to keep falling at the same speed as they have in the past couple of months’ said TLA Chairman, Mr D T Evans.

‘The key question is will vendors accept discounts of more than 5 per cent? Some will, but there is growing evidence from the widening spread between average offers and the offers that are being accepted that many simply won’t.

If the lockdown is indeed lifted in July and the housing market can begin to function again, with people being allowed to view properties, then downward pressure on prices ‘should be limited’.

And in prime London locations, it’s possible to see prices pick up again in the second half of the year.

Our forecast is slightly higher than most of other major bodies with Savills alighning figures with the TLA with predicted falls between 5 per cent to 10 per cent this year amid thin sales.

Similarly, Lloyds revealed in its quarterly results that has a base case scenario prediction that house prices will fall 5 per cent this year.

It said that property prices would then rise 2 per cent next year and be down 0.7 per cent between 2020 and 2022.

The Bank of England, however, has forecast a bigger slump as it said it expects house prices to fall 16 per cent due to the coronavirus crisis and lockdown, before gradually recovering as economic activity picks up.

The BoE said prices would be pushed lower by rising unemployment, but propped up in part by ‘persistently’ low mortgage rates.

The latest monthly data by Halifax for April shows house prices were still 2.7 per cent higher compared to the same time last year despite the coronavirus outbreak.

However, property values were down by 0.6 per cent in April compared to in March, the biggest monthly fall in two years, according to the lending giant.